Hollywood's new formula: Fewer TV shows

Scripted TV production is off 25% from its peak, per industry data firm Ampere Analysis.

Ampere expects spending on entertainment content from the major players to be flat in 2025.

Streamers are shifting some spending to sports content.

Hollywood's production slowdown may be the new normal.

Many entertainment insiders started 2024 hopeful that production levels would recover following the twin labor strikes of 2023 and the broad industry correction in 2022.

Now, the first full year since the strikes has ended. So, where is the industry? New data from the UK-based industry tracker Ampere Analysis shows first-run scripted TV series orders in 2024 were down about 25% from 2022, when 3,108 shows were ordered industrywide at the height of Peak TV. Ampere said the decline was roughly consistent across geographic regions and company types.

What's more, Ampere expects the entertainment content outlay by the industry's top spenders to be essentially flat moving forward. Ampere estimated that total entertainment content spending, excluding sports, by the six big media companies — Netflix, Amazon, Disney, Apple, Paramount, and Warner Bros. Discovery — would be flat at $98 billion in 2025, with growth largely coming from Netflix and Amazon. Netflix, for one, revealed that it would increase its content bill to $18 billion in 2025, up from $17 billion last year.

"The industry realized they could survive on 75% of peak," said Guy Bisson, Ampere's executive director. "In 2024, everyone has leveled out to the strike-year level."

Production tracking firm ProdPro similarly found that TV production declined about 20% in 2024 versus the non-strike year 2022. ProdPro said film production was down 4% over the same period. The company tracks global production by major US-based companies.

ProdPro CEO Alexander LoVerde said 2024 showed a solid improvement from 2023 but was still down from Peak TV's high. He added that 2024 signaled a new baseline as networks and streamers adapt to tighter budgets.

The six major streamers are also spending more on sports, which can attract big audiences and ad dollars. Ampere estimated that spending on live sports by those streamers would reach $28 billion in 2025, a jump of 28% from 2022.

WBD called Ampere's data inaccurate without sharing specifics. "Content spend at Warner Bros. Discovery continues to be robust across film, television, news, sports, and streaming, with the company spending more this year than last and that trend projected to continue in the coming years," a spokesperson emailed.

Ampere also expects Netflix, Amazon, and Disney to rely more on licensed content over time compared with originals. Around half of Netflix's viewing comes from licensed content, the company said in its first "Engagement Report," which was released in January 2024. Disney also saw a big uptick in licensed content spending in 2024, after it fully acquired Hulu in late 2023.

Crime and drama are the most popular genres

In TV, Ampere found that crime was the most popular genre, accounting for 25% of scripted commissions by the six major streamers last year. It was followed by drama (19%) and romance (17%). Comedy and action orders increased the most — each was up about 60% year over year — while children's series fell the most at about 45%.

The shift toward overseas commissioning continued in 2024. Ampere said that for the second year in a row, the six major streamers ordered more first-run series in Western Europe than in North America. Asia showed its growing importance, overtaking North America in orders in 2024.

LA has also been losing some ground as the epicenter of TV and film production. FilmLA, which issues permits for Los Angeles, reported that shoot days declined 5.6% year over year in 2024, reaching the lowest level it had recorded outside 2020 when the pandemic halted production.

Hopes for a huge rebound have fizzled

ProdPro said that signs of sluggishness in 2024 started to appear mid-year. It was an especially tough year for reality TV and celebrity-fronted production companies that raised money at big valuations.

In the industry, a widespread belief was that productions were being stalled in anticipation of a possible third strike — this time by crews — which was ultimately avoided. Many in Hollywood clung to the mantra "survive till '25," hoping production would bounce back this year.

Ampere doesn't think this will be the case, characterizing the current production level as the new normal.

LoVerde of ProdPro sounded a more optimistic note.

"With healthier financial foundations, we expect streaming platforms to reinvest in content, laying the groundwork for steady growth in 2025 and beyond," LoVerde said.